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Supervised distance-balanced eQTL causality (AlphaGenome paper)

Can the model distinguish putatively causal expression variants from low-probability variants after balancing distance to the target gene?

AlphaGenome Nature 2026 supplementary comparison tables; AlphaGenome Nature 2026 supplementary methods; alphagenome: Journal full-text XML · 'Suppl Table 4 Variant performan'!A14:P14; Supplementary Methods p.30, Chromosome Splits for Variant Benchmarks; Supplementary Methods p.33, zero-shot and supervised eQTL causality; methods: pp.32–33, Expression Quantitative Trait Loci (eQTL) Variants; methods: p.30, Chromosome Splits for Variant Benchmarks; paper: Fig.1e; tables: Suppl Table 4 Variant performan; evaluation index 12; sheet rows 14

2 evaluations · 2 metric rows

At a glance

Explanatory profile: limited source coverage · Automated source review, 2026-09-17. Review applies to the cited claims; unresolved fields are listed below. Numerical results retain their own review status.

Data, procedure and scoring
PropertyDescription and evidence
Dataset and biological contextReprocessed GTEx SuSiE eQTL-catalogue SNVs; positives PIP≥0.9, negatives PIP≤0.01, GENCODEv46 genes, controls downsampled within log-distance-to-TSS bins.AlphaGenome Nature 2026 supplementary comparison tables; AlphaGenome Nature 2026 supplementary methods; alphagenome: Journal full-text XML · 'Suppl Table 4 Variant performan'!A14:P14; Supplementary Methods p.30, Chromosome Splits for Variant Benchmarks; Supplementary Methods p.33, zero-shot and supervised eQTL causality; methods: pp.32–33, Expression Quantitative Trait Loci (eQTL) Variants; methods: p.30, Chromosome Splits for Variant Benchmarks; paper: Fig.1e; tables: Suppl Table 4 Variant performan; evaluation index 12; sheet rows 14
SplitSupervised training chromosomes are 1,4,7,8,10,13,15; validation chromosomes 2,5,11,14,17,20,22,X; test chromosomes 3,6,9,12,16,18,19,21. This is downstream evaluation separation, not a held-out reference-genome claim for the distilled backbone. The task additionally describes five-fold random-forest training excluding test chromosomes, followed by mean test auROC across those fits; exact fold membership is not enumerated.AlphaGenome Nature 2026 supplementary comparison tables; AlphaGenome Nature 2026 supplementary methods; alphagenome: Journal full-text XML · 'Suppl Table 4 Variant performan'!A14:P14; Supplementary Methods p.30, Chromosome Splits for Variant Benchmarks; Supplementary Methods p.33, zero-shot and supervised eQTL causality; methods: pp.32–33, Expression Quantitative Trait Loci (eQTL) Variants; methods: p.30, Chromosome Splits for Variant Benchmarks; paper: Fig.1e; tables: Suppl Table 4 Variant performan; evaluation index 12; sheet rows 14
Allowed inputs and adaptationAbsolute multimodal AlphaGenome variant features, with target-gene selection for gene-specific scores.AlphaGenome Nature 2026 supplementary comparison tables; AlphaGenome Nature 2026 supplementary methods; alphagenome: Journal full-text XML · 'Suppl Table 4 Variant performan'!A14:P14; Supplementary Methods p.30, Chromosome Splits for Variant Benchmarks; Supplementary Methods p.33, zero-shot and supervised eQTL causality; methods: pp.32–33, Expression Quantitative Trait Loci (eQTL) Variants; methods: p.30, Chromosome Splits for Variant Benchmarks; paper: Fig.1e; tables: Suppl Table 4 Variant performan; evaluation index 12; sheet rows 14
Metrics as reportedtissue_weighted_mean_aurocAlphaGenome Nature 2026 supplementary comparison tables; AlphaGenome Nature 2026 supplementary methods; alphagenome: Journal full-text XML · 'Suppl Table 4 Variant performan'!A14:P14; Supplementary Methods p.30, Chromosome Splits for Variant Benchmarks; Supplementary Methods p.33, zero-shot and supervised eQTL causality; methods: pp.32–33, Expression Quantitative Trait Loci (eQTL) Variants; methods: p.30, Chromosome Splits for Variant Benchmarks; paper: Fig.1e; tables: Suppl Table 4 Variant performan; evaluation index 12; sheet rows 14
AggregationauROC per tissue weighted by the tissue’s variant count; the supervised analysis additionally averages auROC across five fitted folds.AlphaGenome Nature 2026 supplementary comparison tables; AlphaGenome Nature 2026 supplementary methods; alphagenome: Journal full-text XML · 'Suppl Table 4 Variant performan'!A14:P14; Supplementary Methods p.30, Chromosome Splits for Variant Benchmarks; Supplementary Methods p.33, zero-shot and supervised eQTL causality; methods: pp.32–33, Expression Quantitative Trait Loci (eQTL) Variants; methods: p.30, Chromosome Splits for Variant Benchmarks; paper: Fig.1e; tables: Suppl Table 4 Variant performan; evaluation index 12; sheet rows 14
UncertaintyNot reported for these summary-table scores. · Not reported in inspected sourcesAlphaGenome Nature 2026 supplementary comparison tables; AlphaGenome Nature 2026 supplementary methods; alphagenome: Journal full-text XML · 'Suppl Table 4 Variant performan'!A14:P14; Supplementary Methods p.30, Chromosome Splits for Variant Benchmarks; Supplementary Methods p.33, zero-shot and supervised eQTL causality; methods: pp.32–33, Expression Quantitative Trait Loci (eQTL) Variants; methods: p.30, Chromosome Splits for Variant Benchmarks; paper: Fig.1e; tables: Suppl Table 4 Variant performan; evaluation index 12; sheet rows 14
Entity typeprotocol
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How it works

Supervised distance-balanced eQTL causality: evaluation procedure

Conceptual summary of the cited procedure; model-specific conditions are given below.

Supervised distance-balanced eQTL causality: evaluation procedureCreate distance-balanced fine-mapping labels. Then: Hold out test chromosomes. Then: Fit multimodal random forest. Then: Aggregate tissue auROCCreate distance-balancedfine-mapping labelsHold out test chromosomesFit multimodal random forestAggregate tissue auROC
Read the diagram as text
  1. Create distance-balanced fine-mapping labels
  2. Hold out test chromosomes
  3. Fit multimodal random forest
  4. Aggregate tissue auROC
AlphaGenome Nature 2026 supplementary comparison tables; AlphaGenome Nature 2026 supplementary methods; alphagenome: Journal full-text XML · 'Suppl Table 4 Variant performan'!A14:P14; Supplementary Methods p.30, Chromosome Splits for Variant Benchmarks; Supplementary Methods p.33, zero-shot and supervised eQTL causality; methods: pp.32–33, Expression Quantitative Trait Loci (eQTL) Variants; methods: p.30, Chromosome Splits for Variant Benchmarks; paper: Fig.1e; tables: Suppl Table 4 Variant performan; evaluation index 12; sheet rows 14

What is tested

Can the model distinguish putatively causal expression variants from low-probability variants after balancing distance to the target gene?

AlphaGenome Nature 2026 supplementary comparison tables; AlphaGenome Nature 2026 supplementary methods; alphagenome: Journal full-text XML · 'Suppl Table 4 Variant performan'!A14:P14; Supplementary Methods p.30, Chromosome Splits for Variant Benchmarks; Supplementary Methods p.33, zero-shot and supervised eQTL causality; methods: pp.32–33, Expression Quantitative Trait Loci (eQTL) Variants; methods: p.30, Chromosome Splits for Variant Benchmarks; paper: Fig.1e; tables: Suppl Table 4 Variant performan; evaluation index 12; sheet rows 14

Procedure

Train the source’s random-forest classifier on the same balanced causality dataset and score the held-out chromosome test set.

AlphaGenome Nature 2026 supplementary comparison tables; AlphaGenome Nature 2026 supplementary methods; alphagenome: Journal full-text XML · 'Suppl Table 4 Variant performan'!A14:P14; Supplementary Methods p.30, Chromosome Splits for Variant Benchmarks; Supplementary Methods p.33, zero-shot and supervised eQTL causality; methods: pp.32–33, Expression Quantitative Trait Loci (eQTL) Variants; methods: p.30, Chromosome Splits for Variant Benchmarks; paper: Fig.1e; tables: Suppl Table 4 Variant performan; evaluation index 12; sheet rows 14

Tested models and results

Release 2026-09-17-a757f4af4277 · 2 evaluations · 2 metric rows. Different protocols are not a single leaderboard.

Results grouped by the exact reported evaluation
Metric and findingCoverage and uncertaintyEvidence
borzoi-ensemble: variant scores + random forest (paper Table 4): Supervised distance-balanced eQTL causality

Train the source’s random-forest classifier on the same balanced causality dataset and score the held-out chromosome test set.

Author-reported evaluation · Evaluation metadata: needs review

0.759224069094061 tissue_weighted_mean_auroc

Unit: dimensionless · Direction: higher

Aggregation: auROC per tissue weighted by the tissue’s variant count; the supervised analysis additionally averages auROC across five fitted folds.

Uncertainty: unreported

Scored: Not reported · Eligible: Not reported

source checkedAlphaGenome Nature 2026 supplementary comparison tables · 'Suppl Table 4 Variant performan'!L14

Source checking is not independent reproduction.

AlphaGenome absolute multimodal scores → RandomForestClassifier: Supervised distance-balanced eQTL causality

Train the source’s random-forest classifier on the same balanced causality dataset and score the held-out chromosome test set.

Author-reported evaluation · Evaluation metadata: needs review

0.80 tissue_weighted_mean_auroc

Unit: dimensionless · Direction: higher

Aggregation: auROC per tissue weighted by the tissue’s variant count; the supervised analysis additionally averages auROC across five fitted folds.

Uncertainty: unreported

Scored: Not reported · Eligible: Not reported

source checkedAlphaGenome Nature 2026 supplementary comparison tables · 'Suppl Table 4 Variant performan'!M14

Source checking is not independent reproduction.

Strengths and limitations

Strengths and considerations

No source-reviewed explanatory claims are recorded here yet.

Limitations and conditions

  • Fine-mapping labels represent putative causality. Distance balancing changes the sampled population and does not establish calibration to genome-wide prevalence. Do not equate the supervised feature pipeline with the RNA-only scorer.AlphaGenome Nature 2026 supplementary comparison tables; AlphaGenome Nature 2026 supplementary methods; alphagenome: Journal full-text XML · 'Suppl Table 4 Variant performan'!A14:P14; Supplementary Methods p.30, Chromosome Splits for Variant Benchmarks; Supplementary Methods p.33, zero-shot and supervised eQTL causality; methods: pp.32–33, Expression Quantitative Trait Loci (eQTL) Variants; methods: p.30, Chromosome Splits for Variant Benchmarks; paper: Fig.1e; tables: Suppl Table 4 Variant performan; evaluation index 12; sheet rows 14
  • This is an author-reported protocol, not a rewire rerun. Different datasets, processing and adaptations cannot support an unrestricted leaderboard.AlphaGenome Nature 2026 supplementary comparison tables; AlphaGenome Nature 2026 supplementary methods; alphagenome: Journal full-text XML · 'Suppl Table 4 Variant performan'!A14:P14; Supplementary Methods p.30, Chromosome Splits for Variant Benchmarks; Supplementary Methods p.33, zero-shot and supervised eQTL causality; methods: pp.32–33, Expression Quantitative Trait Loci (eQTL) Variants; methods: p.30, Chromosome Splits for Variant Benchmarks; paper: Fig.1e; tables: Suppl Table 4 Variant performan; evaluation index 12; sheet rows 14
Profile review details

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Stable record: alphagenome-2026-t4-protocol-12

Evidence table

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42 evidence rows matching the loaded filters

Claims, original sources and review scope · Release 2026-09-17-a757f4af4277
Property and statementOriginal source and locationReview and provenance
Diagram caption

Conceptual summary of the cited procedure; model-specific conditions are given below.

Individual claims
alphagenome: Journal full-text XML

Original source ↗

'Suppl Table 4 Variant performan'!A14:P14; Supplementary Methods p.30, Chromosome Splits for Variant Benchmarks; Supplementary Methods p.33, zero-shot and supervised eQTL causality; methods: pp.32–33, Expression Quantitative Trait Loci (eQTL) Variants; methods: p.30, Chromosome Splits for Variant Benchmarks; paper: Fig.1e; tables: Suppl Table 4 Variant performan; evaluation index 12; sheet rows 14

Shared locator for this statement’s cited sources; not a separate locator for each citation.

Version: Retrieved page snapshot; no immutable publisher revision supplied
Retrieved: 2026-09-16T19:53:03.009088+00:00

source checked

automated source review · 2026-09-17

Audit details

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Inspected artifact

Diagram caption

Conceptual summary of the cited procedure; model-specific conditions are given below.

Individual claims
AlphaGenome Nature 2026 supplementary methods

Original source ↗

'Suppl Table 4 Variant performan'!A14:P14; Supplementary Methods p.30, Chromosome Splits for Variant Benchmarks; Supplementary Methods p.33, zero-shot and supervised eQTL causality; methods: pp.32–33, Expression Quantitative Trait Loci (eQTL) Variants; methods: p.30, Chromosome Splits for Variant Benchmarks; paper: Fig.1e; tables: Suppl Table 4 Variant performan; evaluation index 12; sheet rows 14

Shared locator for this statement’s cited sources; not a separate locator for each citation.

Version: Supplement to Nature version of record, 28 January 2026; content hash pinned
Retrieved: 2026-09-17T06:37:01.778972+00:00

source checked

automated source review · 2026-09-17

Audit details

Primary-source transcription and separate automated source review. No human sign-off or independent experimental reproduction.

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Source artifact SHA-256: 86b2e6a07543e3c201e2e157a3e9c6eb5235ff13eb8a5224f6fcb6fe1808d4c0

Hash scope: SHA-256 of exact publisher PDF bytes

Format: original_pdf

Inspected artifact

Diagram caption

Conceptual summary of the cited procedure; model-specific conditions are given below.

Individual claims
AlphaGenome Nature 2026 supplementary comparison tables

Original source ↗

'Suppl Table 4 Variant performan'!A14:P14; Supplementary Methods p.30, Chromosome Splits for Variant Benchmarks; Supplementary Methods p.33, zero-shot and supervised eQTL causality; methods: pp.32–33, Expression Quantitative Trait Loci (eQTL) Variants; methods: p.30, Chromosome Splits for Variant Benchmarks; paper: Fig.1e; tables: Suppl Table 4 Variant performan; evaluation index 12; sheet rows 14

Shared locator for this statement’s cited sources; not a separate locator for each citation.

Version: Nature version of record, 28 January 2026
Retrieved: 2026-09-17T06:31:06.887921+00:00

source checked

automated source review · 2026-09-17

Audit details

Primary-source transcription and separate automated source review. No human sign-off or independent experimental reproduction.

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Source artifact SHA-256: 833cb78b6ae6fe39415cfff296ac00c48d800326139f13eb307531a1cc133154

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Format: xlsx

Inspected artifact

Diagram steps

["Create distance-balanced fine-mapping labels","Hold out test chromosomes","Fit multimodal random forest","Aggregate tissue auROC"]

Individual claims
alphagenome: Journal full-text XML

Original source ↗

'Suppl Table 4 Variant performan'!A14:P14; Supplementary Methods p.30, Chromosome Splits for Variant Benchmarks; Supplementary Methods p.33, zero-shot and supervised eQTL causality; methods: pp.32–33, Expression Quantitative Trait Loci (eQTL) Variants; methods: p.30, Chromosome Splits for Variant Benchmarks; paper: Fig.1e; tables: Suppl Table 4 Variant performan; evaluation index 12; sheet rows 14

Shared locator for this statement’s cited sources; not a separate locator for each citation.

Version: Retrieved page snapshot; no immutable publisher revision supplied
Retrieved: 2026-09-16T19:53:03.009088+00:00

source checked

automated source review · 2026-09-17

Audit details

Primary-source transcription and separate automated source review. No human sign-off or independent experimental reproduction.

Field: attributes.profile.diagram.steps

Source artifact SHA-256: d159b791fc6cb7b679c151727b7b05a6e5b6388b08a89b675014983d85b6df36

Hash scope: SHA-256 of retrieved original artifact bytes

Format: original_artifact

Inspected artifact

Diagram steps

["Create distance-balanced fine-mapping labels","Hold out test chromosomes","Fit multimodal random forest","Aggregate tissue auROC"]

Individual claims
AlphaGenome Nature 2026 supplementary methods

Original source ↗

'Suppl Table 4 Variant performan'!A14:P14; Supplementary Methods p.30, Chromosome Splits for Variant Benchmarks; Supplementary Methods p.33, zero-shot and supervised eQTL causality; methods: pp.32–33, Expression Quantitative Trait Loci (eQTL) Variants; methods: p.30, Chromosome Splits for Variant Benchmarks; paper: Fig.1e; tables: Suppl Table 4 Variant performan; evaluation index 12; sheet rows 14

Shared locator for this statement’s cited sources; not a separate locator for each citation.

Version: Supplement to Nature version of record, 28 January 2026; content hash pinned
Retrieved: 2026-09-17T06:37:01.778972+00:00

source checked

automated source review · 2026-09-17

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Source artifact SHA-256: 86b2e6a07543e3c201e2e157a3e9c6eb5235ff13eb8a5224f6fcb6fe1808d4c0

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Format: original_pdf

Inspected artifact

Diagram steps

["Create distance-balanced fine-mapping labels","Hold out test chromosomes","Fit multimodal random forest","Aggregate tissue auROC"]

Individual claims
AlphaGenome Nature 2026 supplementary comparison tables

Original source ↗

'Suppl Table 4 Variant performan'!A14:P14; Supplementary Methods p.30, Chromosome Splits for Variant Benchmarks; Supplementary Methods p.33, zero-shot and supervised eQTL causality; methods: pp.32–33, Expression Quantitative Trait Loci (eQTL) Variants; methods: p.30, Chromosome Splits for Variant Benchmarks; paper: Fig.1e; tables: Suppl Table 4 Variant performan; evaluation index 12; sheet rows 14

Shared locator for this statement’s cited sources; not a separate locator for each citation.

Version: Nature version of record, 28 January 2026
Retrieved: 2026-09-17T06:31:06.887921+00:00

source checked

automated source review · 2026-09-17

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Diagram title

Supervised distance-balanced eQTL causality: evaluation procedure

Individual claims
alphagenome: Journal full-text XML

Original source ↗

'Suppl Table 4 Variant performan'!A14:P14; Supplementary Methods p.30, Chromosome Splits for Variant Benchmarks; Supplementary Methods p.33, zero-shot and supervised eQTL causality; methods: pp.32–33, Expression Quantitative Trait Loci (eQTL) Variants; methods: p.30, Chromosome Splits for Variant Benchmarks; paper: Fig.1e; tables: Suppl Table 4 Variant performan; evaluation index 12; sheet rows 14

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Retrieved: 2026-09-16T19:53:03.009088+00:00

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Inspected artifact

Diagram title

Supervised distance-balanced eQTL causality: evaluation procedure

Individual claims
AlphaGenome Nature 2026 supplementary methods

Original source ↗

'Suppl Table 4 Variant performan'!A14:P14; Supplementary Methods p.30, Chromosome Splits for Variant Benchmarks; Supplementary Methods p.33, zero-shot and supervised eQTL causality; methods: pp.32–33, Expression Quantitative Trait Loci (eQTL) Variants; methods: p.30, Chromosome Splits for Variant Benchmarks; paper: Fig.1e; tables: Suppl Table 4 Variant performan; evaluation index 12; sheet rows 14

Shared locator for this statement’s cited sources; not a separate locator for each citation.

Version: Supplement to Nature version of record, 28 January 2026; content hash pinned
Retrieved: 2026-09-17T06:37:01.778972+00:00

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automated source review · 2026-09-17

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Field: attributes.profile.diagram.title

Source artifact SHA-256: 86b2e6a07543e3c201e2e157a3e9c6eb5235ff13eb8a5224f6fcb6fe1808d4c0

Hash scope: SHA-256 of exact publisher PDF bytes

Format: original_pdf

Inspected artifact

Diagram title

Supervised distance-balanced eQTL causality: evaluation procedure

Individual claims
AlphaGenome Nature 2026 supplementary comparison tables

Original source ↗

'Suppl Table 4 Variant performan'!A14:P14; Supplementary Methods p.30, Chromosome Splits for Variant Benchmarks; Supplementary Methods p.33, zero-shot and supervised eQTL causality; methods: pp.32–33, Expression Quantitative Trait Loci (eQTL) Variants; methods: p.30, Chromosome Splits for Variant Benchmarks; paper: Fig.1e; tables: Suppl Table 4 Variant performan; evaluation index 12; sheet rows 14

Shared locator for this statement’s cited sources; not a separate locator for each citation.

Version: Nature version of record, 28 January 2026
Retrieved: 2026-09-17T06:31:06.887921+00:00

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Format: xlsx

Inspected artifact

Dataset and biological context

Reprocessed GTEx SuSiE eQTL-catalogue SNVs; positives PIP≥0.9, negatives PIP≤0.01, GENCODEv46 genes, controls downsampled within log-distance-to-TSS bins.

Individual claims
alphagenome: Journal full-text XML

Original source ↗

'Suppl Table 4 Variant performan'!A14:P14; Supplementary Methods p.30, Chromosome Splits for Variant Benchmarks; Supplementary Methods p.33, zero-shot and supervised eQTL causality; methods: pp.32–33, Expression Quantitative Trait Loci (eQTL) Variants; methods: p.30, Chromosome Splits for Variant Benchmarks; paper: Fig.1e; tables: Suppl Table 4 Variant performan; evaluation index 12; sheet rows 14

Shared locator for this statement’s cited sources; not a separate locator for each citation.

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Retrieved: 2026-09-16T19:53:03.009088+00:00

source checked

automated source review · 2026-09-17

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Sources and history

Release 2026-09-17-a757f4af4277 · Record review: needs review

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Technical metadata and extraction receipts

Stable ID: alphagenome-2026-t4-protocol-12

areas
dna-genomes
entity level
protocol
version
Nature version of record, 28 January 2026
source evaluation index
12
source table
4
reference levels
metric: tissue_weighted_mean_auroc; printed value: 0.5; numeric value: 0.5; source locator: Suppl Table 4 Variant performan!J14; note: Source reference quantity for relative-performance calculation, not a measured baseline run.
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